In one of the first big post-2024 electoral tests, Democrats have chosen New York dairy farmer Blake Gendebien to attempt a flip of a ruby-red upstate Congressional district being vacated by Representative Elise Stefanik, President Donald Trump's United Nations Ambassador pick.
Why It Matters
Winning New York's 21st Congressional District, which spans the state's rural North Country, is an uphill battle for any Democrat. Trump carried the district by 20 points in November, while Stefanik won reelection by 24 points. But special elections — particularly in off years — often yield unpredictable results, and Democrats believe the race may be more competitive than expected.
A Gendebien victory would be a flashing warning sign for Republicans, who are dealing with an onslaught of backlash over some of Trump's policies, particularly surrounding the Department of Government Efficiency, the task force led by Elon Musk aimed at cutting government waste.
What to Know
Gendebien told Newsweek in an interview on Wednesday he believes he can emerge victorious in the special election.
"Something unusual, I think—because I'm not a politician, I'm a dairy farmer and a community member—I really like people. I like to see people. I like to shake hands. I like to look people in the eyes, and I want to deliver on their feedback," he said. "That's very important to me. This will translate into a win, not just a win for the campaign, but a win for the North Country."
Born and raised in Lisbon, New York, a small town across the border from Ottawa, Gendebien touted his experience as a farmer, school board member and small business owner as to why he best understands the district.
People living in NY-21 are most concerned about affordability and the impact of President Trump's looming tariffs on Canadian goods, he said. These tariffs would have major consequences for the region, which shares its northern border with Canada.
Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods soon after his return to office. They are currently on a month-long pause, but Trump said this week the tariffs are "going forward," despite concerns from economists that they will increase prices for U.S. consumers.
These tariffs are an "absolute nonstarter" for residents of New York's North Country, Gendebien said.
"We buy 80 percent of our potash fertilizer from Canada. This will impact the North Country and the entire United States. Corn, soybeans, and also forage, alfalfa, we require it. We need that fertilizer," he said. "If there's a 25 percent tariff on that, all of our food is going to get more expensive. There's no way around it."
There were more than 12,000 farm producers in the district as of 2022, according to United States Department of Agriculture data.
Gendebien said his experience as a farmer has prepared him to work well with other members of Congress. Just 6 percent of Washington lawmakers were farmers as of 2024.
"It's a willingness to get things done," he said. "When my neighbors' tractor is stuck in the mud, I don't ask him what party affiliation he is. Guess what we both know? We both know we have to get his tractor out of mud."
As Gendebien hits the campaign trail running to meet with voters, many details about the special election are still unclear.
Republicans have not yet picked their candidate, and the election hasn't been scheduled, as Stefanik hasn't yet resigned from Congress. Democrats in the New York legislature sought to introduce a law that would delay the election from the typical 90-day window after a vacancy is declared, but that bill was killed following a wave of backlash.
NY-21Could Be Competitive, Experts Say
Ron Seyb, a professor of political science at Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., told Newsweek the "high percentage bet" would be on a Republican candidate to win, but the race could potentially become competitive.
"It's about a +9 Republican district," he said. Stefanik's last blowout win was not "encouraging" for a Democrat like Gendebien, " butit is the case that special elections are quirky."
Strong Democratic turnout would be key to a Gendebien victory, Seyb said. Typically, turnout in special elections falls to only about half of usual turnout, and voters skew older and more partisan.
Democrats were "savvy" to pick a candidate who isn't part of the establishment, Seyb added. Choosing an outsider like Gendebien over well known candidates who previously ran against Stefanik may have caught Republicans off guard, he suggested.
While the district has become solidly Republican, Democrats had more success there in the 2000s. Former President Barack Obama carried NY-21 in both of his presidential bids, and Democratic Congressman Bill Owens represented it until 2015.
The district has trended rightward in part due to heightened education polarization and because it has hemorrhaged young voters, Seyb said.
The Skidmore professor noted the race seems to be drawing national investment from Democrats, as Gendebien has already received significant funding from outside the district. Democrats may see the race as particularly important due to the slim margins in Congress, he said.
"There is some recognition among voters, voters who we would call as high propensity voters, that Republicans have this thin majority in the House, and this seat very much matters, it could be the case that Democrats come out more because of those national factors," he said.
Harvey Schantz, a professor of political science at SUNY Plattsburgh, told Newsweek Gendebien's ties to the district and farming are strengths, but Trump remains "very popular" in the district.
A plunge in Trump's approval, however, would make the district more competitive than expected, he said.
"To some degree, Gendebien will be running against Trump's record. Gendebien is sure to highlight the difficulty the president has had in lowering the cost of groceries and the strained relationships between the U.S. and Canada, our immediate neighbors to the north," he said.
Gendebien Pledges to Join Centrist Coalition
Republicans, meanwhile, are aiming to paint Gendebien as a "far left" progressive.
"Democrats didn't do their homework when they selected Blake Gendebien and his catastrophic statements. Republicans will easily hold this seat in the upcoming special election, because the North Country is unquestionably Trump Country," New York Republican Party Chair Ed Cox said in a statement after his nomination.
Gendebien, however, has said he would join the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, comprised of moderate Democrats mostly in competitive or conservative seats, if elected.
"I am not here to go to extremes of either side. I'm here to work on the policies we can actually get done. We need common sense legislators on both sides of the aisle that can get things done. It's time we focus on getting things done, for the North Country, for NY-21, for the American people," he told Newsweek.
On the border, he said he would prioritize solving the humanitarian crisis and guaranteeing a legal labor workforce for the agricultural industry, while ensuring violent criminals in the U.S. are illegally are removed.
He also criticized DOGE, saying that while he agrees there is "always room to make cuts and become more efficient" as a small business owner, he would not do so in a way that would "damage" his business.
"We cannot allow a billionaire, maybe the richest person in the world and an unelected bureaucrat, to make cuts to hardworking families in the North Country to give tax breaks to wealthy," he said. "In no world is that acceptable."
What Happens Next
The next steps depend on when Stefanik resigns from Congress, whose confirmation as UN ambassador is on ice while the GOP defends its slim majority in the House. She isn't likely to face a difficult confirmation, as Republicans hold a majority in the Senate. Once she resigns, Governor Kathy Hochul will set a special election in the 90-day timeframe.
The Republican candidate selection process remains underway.
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